Antananarivo – Majorities of Malagasy want democracy and oppose military rule but are willing to accept military intervention if elected leaders abuse their power, according to an Afrobarometer (www.Afrobarometer.org) survey in late 2024.
In case of a military takeover of the government, a plurality of citizens said civilian rule should be restored as quickly as possible, though substantial minorities would accept a more gradual transition.
On Tuesday, Madagascar’s military leaders announced that they had taken control of the government after President Andry Rajoelina went into hiding in the wake of massive youth-led protests over chronic water and electricity outages, unemployment, corruption, and the rising cost of living.
The military leadership was quoted as promising to form a civilian government and to conduct elections within two years.
Key findings
- As of late 2024, a majority (53%) of Malagasy said they prefer democracy over any other type of political system. But 13% said a non-democratic government can sometimes be preferable, and fully one in three (33%) professed indifference to the type of government they have (Figure 1).
- Almost two-thirds (64%) of citizens rejected military rule as a system of government (Figure 2).
- But six in 10 Malagasy (60%) saw it as “legitimate for the armed forces to take control of government when elected leaders abuse power for their own ends,” while 40% said the military should never intervene (Figure 3).
- In case of a military takeover, a plurality (45%) of respondents said the military should restore civilian rule as soon as possible, while 35% preferred a gradual transition and 20% said the military should rule as long as it deems necessary (Figure 4).
Afrobarometer surveys
Afrobarometer is a pan-African, non-partisan survey research network that provides reliable data on African experiences and evaluations of democracy, governance, and quality of life.
Ten survey rounds in up to 45 countries have been completed since 1999. Round 10 (2024/2025) covers 38 countries.
Afrobarometer’s national partners conduct face-to-face interviews in the language of the respondent’s choice.
The Afrobarometer team in Madagascar, led by COEF-Ressources, interviewed a nationally representative sample of 1,200 adult citizens of Madagascar in October-November 2024.
A sample of this size yields country-level results with a margin of error of +/-3 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.
Previous surveys were conducted in Madagascar in 2005, 2008, 2013, 2015, 2018, and 2022.
