The unfolding disaster in Niger can be viewed from different perspectives, each with its own implications.
It is indeed embarrassing, as the recent coup on July 26 reflects a failure on the part of the West.
Neither France, the former colonial power, nor the US, the waning superpower, anticipated or effectively addressed this crisis.
The implications of this situation are concerning for several reasons.
Firstly, it grants Russia and China a significant advantage in their ongoing competition for influence against the West, both regionally and globally.
This has potential consequences that could be catastrophic, particularly in terms of the fight against jihadist terrorism and the management of unchecked migration.
Moreover, if this trend continues unchecked, there is a real risk of it escalating into a full-blown world war scenario with apocalyptic implications.
And it all happened because a high-ranking official caught wind of a possible termination and chose to take matters into his own hands by overthrowing the very leader he was supposed to safeguard.
Surprisingly, this coup in Niger was not fueled by ideology, geopolitics, or even the global food crisis – rather, it stemmed from a simple staffing issue.
This marks the fifth time such an event has occurred in Niger’s history since it gained independence from France in 1960.
The Sahel region has experienced a distressing number of putsches since 2020, with more than six occurrences.
This includes multiple incidents in Mali and Burkina Faso, as well as events in Guinea and Sudan.
The situation in this area has escalated into complete chaos, stretching from the Atlantic to the Red Sea.
It is an unfortunate truth that the Sahel can be described as a living hell – an arid and impoverished savanna plagued by instability.
A Front Line of Coups and Chaos Abdourahamane (Omar) Tchiani, the esteemed Nigerien general, held a crucial role as the commander of the presidential guard.
Charged with safeguarding President Mohamed Bazoum, who was elected in 2021 and is an uncommon ally of the United States in the Sahel region.
However, tensions arose when President Bazoum contemplated replacing General Tchiani.
In response, the general unexpectedly took matters into his own hands by rallying support from his junta and seizing control.
Bazoum, in a desperate bid for safety, quickly sought refuge in a secure room across the hall from his office.
From there, he has been tirelessly reaching out to the global community for assistance, going as far as dictating an op-ed article over the phone to be published in the esteemed Washington Post.
His urgent appeal resonates with the urgency of the situation at hand and highlights the dire need for external support.
Drawing from recent events in Burkina Faso and Mali, it is plausible to consider what may occur as a result.
In the case of Niger, their junta could potentially decide to expel French and American troops stationed within their borders.
Subsequently, there is a possibility that they will seek closer ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Wagner Group – a known Russian paramilitary organisation renowned for its ruthlessness.
While the Nigerien revolt was taking place, it’s interesting to note that Putin was busy hosting African leaders in St. Petersburg.
During these meetings, he skillfully engaged with them, persuading them to support – or at the very least not oppose – his mission against Ukraine.
This strategic move demonstrates Putin’s ability to maintain alliances and garner international backing for his actions.
Despite being in exile, Prigozhin managed to make an appearance in St. Petersburg alongside African leaders, capturing photo opportunities.
This unexpected move raises eyebrows, as he was supposed to be punished for his brief rebellion in June and residing in Belarus.
However, it seems that Putin’s interests in the Sahel region outweigh any concerns he may have had about Prigozhin’s actions.
The Wagner Group has been operating in Africa for quite some time, offering its services in exchange for valuable resources such as diamonds.
While their actions may be controversial, it is important to note that the Russian government supports these operations and views them as a means of reducing the influence of the United States in certain countries.
In a similar vein, the Sahel region holds great significance for Putin, mirroring the Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s perception.
Both see it as a pivotal arena in their ongoing ideological struggle against the Western world, with the United States taking the lead.
It is important to highlight that this struggle transcends different regions, including Ukraine, Asia, and even the Arctic.
A recent notable example was witnessed last week when a joint flotilla from Russia and China made a powerful statement showcasing their strong alliance.
Putin’s interest in the Sahel region is not without reason.
This area holds the potential to disrupt Western stability on multiple fronts simultaneously.
With its rise as a global hub for terrorism, armed groups like Boko Haram and local factions of the Islamic State take advantage of political turmoil, ethnic conflicts, and criminal activities to establish their influence.
To fight the terrorists, Western countries, notably France and the U.S.A., have stationed troops in the few places that remain cooperative.
Niger has been among the most important, housing an American drone base.
Without a Western presence, therell be nothing to stop the terrorists.
Putin is ecstatic about the prospect.
It will exacerbate suffering and increase migration northward and toward the European Union, which he despises and wishes to destabilise.
That is also why Putin has weaponised grain, which he is preventing Ukraine from exporting, fully aware that his blockade is causing hunger in places such as Africa.
The cynicism displayed by Putin and Prigozhin is breathtaking.
Even as he starves other Africans by bombing Ukrainian grain depots, Putin promised those who arrived in St. Petersburg “free” Russian grain – in amounts the UN considers ridiculous.
Their African audiences’ willful gullibility is equally shocking.
It should be clear to all countries in the region, and indeed to every human being alive, that Russia is to blame for the global food crisis, and that Putin is now the coloniser fighting an imperialist war of subjugation in Ukraine.
What is the rest of the world supposed to do?
It’s difficult to say.
Of course, the African Union and the West have condemned the putsch.
The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), led by Nigeria, has suspended trade with Niger and cut off Nigerian electricity exports to the country.
ECOWAS even issued an ultimatum to the junta: restore Bazoum to power or face military intervention.
On cue, the pro-Russian regimes in Burkina Faso and Mali responded that they would then come to the aid of Niger’s new leaders.
We’d be in another proxy war, one step closer to World War III, with Russians in the second row on one side and Americans on the other.
For the time being, Nigeria and the other ECOWAS countries appear to have determined that the risk is too great, as they let their ultimatum’s deadline pass without sending troops on Sunday.
The United States and France are also unlikely to arm Bazoum.
They are concerned that Niger will become the next Iraq or Afghanistan, or that they will end up shooting at Russians, sparking a global conflagration.
As I previously stated, there will be fallout.
For years, the United States and its allies have ignored the region diplomatically.
Washington has recently been without ambassadors to Niger and Nigeria.
Senator Rand Paul had been blocking nominees to force the White House to release information on Covid-19 until recently; a new ambassador to Niger was only confirmed the day after the coup.
Politics must once more come to a halt at the water’s edge.
According to Putin and Xi, we are already in the next world war, even though no one has declared it or begun shooting directly at the other side.
The United States, Europe, and the rest of the Western world must support Africa – and indeed the entire Global South – not just now, but from now on.
We must make it easier for the world to resist the dark side of geopolitics, not just juntas.
*The writer of this article is Kevin Mofokeng, a developmental writer and digital PR strategist based in Gaborone, Botswana. The views expressed by Kevin Mofokeng are not necessarily those of The Bulrushes
